A spatial framework to support scenario planning for Melbourne's Peri-Urban region - planning options for water security and climate change adaption

This research developed a quantitative framework that allows examination of current and potential planning scenarios and the impacts of those options on water, biodiversity and agriculture within the context of issues such as food security, water security and climate change impacts. The framework aimed to deliver quantitative information to strategic planners across the peri-urban councils of Melbourne and state government. All peri-urban regions are under pressure from urban development. Peri-urban regions are significant hinterlands to their respective urban areas as key sources for food and water. In the Australian context they represent critical future planning challenges due to their role in food/water security and as areas for sea-change / tree change development and associated climate change related impacts. The framework used a coupling of standard supply/demand and distributed demand (development attractiveness) approaches. The framework was made spatially explicit within a geographic information system (GIS). The “attractiveness” concept was implemented using a preferencing (Analytical Hierarchy Process) approach that combined a set of criteria derived from previous research into the region. The framework design is modular to enable maximum flexibility in examining different planning scenarios. The research produced a significant body of quantitative information, examples range from the timing, distribution and number of lots in the planning horizon by decade to 2040, to targeting areas that will be under increased pressure due to flow on effects of proposed infrastructure, to quantification of the impact on biodiversity, water supply and intensive agriculture and the required “offsets” needed to mitigate these impacts by directing development to existing urban centres. The results demonstrate that quantitative analysis of planning scenarios is both possible and practical. The research highlights and quantifies the significant impacts on the peri-urban region from urban development and provides practical information for strategic planners at local and state levels to address these issues.