A two-stage simulation to predict medalists in pistol shooting

The International Sports Shooting Federation (ISSF) World Cup Series for air pistol consists of four events each year. Each event comprises two stages: four qualifying rounds and a final round for the top eight competitors. This paper considers best predicting the outcome of both qualifying and final rounds throughout the event, as well as how this information can be utilised to develop a guide for shooters wanting to improve their standing during competition. Due to the differing scoring methods used during an event a two staged approach was required and a variety of methods and models examined to best evaluate this, including multiple and logistic regression, discriminant analysis and simulation. The 2005-2008 World Cup Series results in the Women¿s 10m Air Pistol were used with a simulation derived from distribution and probabilities determined to be the most appropriate and accurate method of prediction. This was confirmed in practice using data from a single World Cup competition held in 2009