An integrated probabilistic approach for prediction of remaining life of buried pipes

This paper proposes an integrated probabilistic approach for the accurate prediction of the safe life of buried infrastructure, using metal water pipes as an example. It will integrate material deterioration, soil mechanics, fracture mechanics and time-dependent reliability theory into a methodology to analyse the behaviour and failure mechanisms of buried metal pipes subjected to simultaneous internal deterioration and external loads, including environmental loads. The research presented in the paper would advance the knowledge in deterioration science and failure theory and provide a sustainable solution to the intelligent management of the vast asset of buried pipelines in the world. It would bring about economical, environmental and social benefits both nationally and internationally.