Challenges to the Risk-based Regulation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems

The introduction of new and novel airspace users with limited operational data and high uncertainty into the aviation sector has necessitated the need to develop a uniform set of regulations tailored to each of their operations. National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) have recommended the adoption of a risk-based approach to the development of these regulations central to which is a Safety Risk Management Process (SRMP). In keeping with contemporary safety risk management practices, it is important to take the uncertainty associated with this approach into consideration. This paper will provide a high-level description of how the outputs from a safety assessment process can vary based on the level of uncertainty taken into consideration and show how this impacts the resulting compliance assessment and compliance finding decision-making processes. This research has the potential to significantly change how NAAs approach rule-making and compliance activities. It enables NAAs to account for uncertainty implicit to regulatory compliance assessment and compliance finding processes and provides NAAs with a systematic and objective means of making compliance findings based on compliance risk.