Future of the fringe: Scenarios for Melbourne's peri-urban growth

The growth of population and housing in Melbournes extensive peri-urban region has resulted in a range of in socio-economic and environmental consequences for rural and urban areas. In recent decades, the region has increased in population at levels beyond that of the metropolis and is projected grow significantly over the next 25 years. To explore the spatial and sectoral consequences of this growth a spatial mapping exercise has been conducted for the Peri-Urban Group of Councils, supported by the Victorian government. This paper reports the implications for growth under a linear business-as-usual scenario, and explores the implications for policy and planning if an alternative scenario is to be achieved. The results demonstrate capacity constraints in this region under various scenarios and the failure of existing planning policy and practice to anticipate and respond to urban and rural growth in this region. Key findings compare the implications of sectoral and cross-sectoral policy for the future of agriculture, land markets, water supply and vegetation management. Policy mechanisms seeking to protect rural landscapes are likely to place added pressure to the towns and urban settlements of the region, exposing a failure to plan for the emerging role of these towns in the expanding city-region.