Melbourne: Testing its progression towards a compact city - an urban planning challenge

This paper evaluates the change in the dwelling density patterns before and after the Melbourne 2030 Plan that promotes a compact city model for Melbourne Metropolitan area. Urban density patterns were spatially explored using a 1X1 kilometre grid that reflects the spatial variability and levels of densification within the urban growth boundary. Two techniques were employed to capture the change in dwelling density. First, a buffer analysis is used to test the difference in the dwelling density patterns between different buffer zones generated around the Melbourne CBD and the 'activity centres'. The ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) results for this part indicate that urban densities across the buffer zones around the Melbourne CBD are statistically different; while the degree of densification around the activity centres between the first two zones (i.e. less than 500 metres and 500 metres to 1 kilometre) are statistically insignificant. Second, the densification proposed in the plan to encourage more multi-level/unit developments has been measured using a spatial autocorrelation measure. The results for this part reveal a decline in the Moran's I computed for 2001 and 2006. This might suggest that densification is just not restricted to the target areas (e.g. activity centres) as the evidence of higher density housing development can be seen widely across the metropolis.