Minimizing bushfire risk through optimal powerline assets replacement and improvement

Fires initiated by powerline faults disproportionately are associated with a majority of bushfire fatalities in South-Eastern Australia. Over 150 deaths have occurred since 1977 in South-Eastern Australia. A response from governments and utilities has been to embark on electricity asset improvement and replacement programs where the definition of improvement is tied to an aim of reducing powerline sparked ignitions under the most dangerous meteorological conditions for fire. This paper introduces an optimization model which provides a strategy for adding technologies to powerline distribution assets such that there are improvements in terms fire risk being lowered. The goal of the model is to minimize financial outlay while the risk of electricity sparked bushfire incidence is a solid constraint in the model, set to mimic potential bushfire risk reduction target scenarios. Currently, strategies for targeting investment in improvement of the electrical distribution system have not used such a mathematically based optimization approach. Instead they are based on expert interpretation of risk maps which visualize risk of fault of asset technologies with the consequence of fire starts at the same locations.