Near real-time impact point prediction of launch vehicles using the Predicted Impact Point (PIP) tool

Southern Launch is a launch service provider, headquartered in Adelaide, South Australia. The company manages two launch sites; the Whalers Way Orbital Launch Complex, and the Koonibba Test Range, which includes a suborbital testing facility. Southern Launch provide five main services including; i) orbital launch to polar and sun-synchronous orbits for rockets and payloads, ii) suborbital launch iii) mission and campaign design iv) rocket design and v) launch licensing. One of the advantages of the Koonibba Test Range is the scope to land rockets on terra firma, an activity undertaken in close consultation with the traditional landowners including the Barngarla (Port Lincoln area), Nauo (southern side), and Wirangu (further west coast) peoples. Key to landing rockets responsibly is predicting where spent rocket stages and any fairings may land. The Predicted Impact Point' (PIP) tool can read in the state vector from a rocket launch trajectory and determine using analytical methodologies the predicted impact geolocation. This paper describes the creation of the PIP tool that ingests the vehicle's position coordinates and velocity obtained from telemetry or radar tracking data of a sub-orbital rocket flight. The state data is used to demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to determine the impact location of the rocket.