Re-scheduling to minimise the potential for match fixing in the FIFA world cup

Football is arguably the most popular sport worldwide, yet its history been marred by incidents of match fixing at both international and club level. In this paper, we review the potential for match fixing during the group stage of the FIFA World Cup. Specifically, the potential for match fixing was assessed among those teams who had qualified for the Round of 16 after only two group stage matches, and therefore had little incentive to win their final group stage match. The 1998, 2002, and 2006 World Cups are reviewed in detail, in order to identify the different scenarios where there was the potential for match fixing to occur. Both FIFA rankings and Elo ratings were used to determine each team¿s relative ranking prior and during the group phase. Given the presence of four teams in each group, simulations were carried out for six potential schedules of games, with the aim of identifying the optimal draw in regards to minimising the potential for match fixing situations. Results indicated that the potential for match fixing is dependent on the schedule as well as the standard deviation of team rankings within each group. Specifically, groups that have a high standard deviation in Elo ratings are more likely to be susceptible to match fixing situations in the final match of the group stage. This is particularly the case if the top two ranked teams play each other in the first group stage match. The potential for match fixing can be minimised when the top two ranked teams play each other in the final group stage match.