Relationship between climate parameters and fire danger in Victoria

The increased frequency of fire in the last 50 years in Victoria could be due to climate change. This research aims to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal vari ations of climatic data over time and the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI). FFDI gives an indication of the probability of fire initiation, its spreading speed and the containment difficulty on a particular day. A sensitive analysis was carried out to identify the critical range of temperature, relative humidity and wind speed values and their impact on high FFDI values. From the analysis of the last 50 years of data for 10 weather stations in Victoria, Horsham, Mildura and Swan Hill were found to be high fire prone areas. Based on the analysis, wind speed of 50 km/hr and relative humidity of 30% on a day with the average temperature of 25°C could be considered as critical parameters driving high FFDI values. These findings are important for emergency response teams planning operational strategy.