Shaping modern cities: Structural continuity and change in Carlton, Melbourne 1870-1970

This paper examines the nature of urban change at the micro-scale in Melbourne from 1870 to 1970. The research forms part of an ongoing international collaboration on the shaping of modern cities. The focus of the broader research programme is the extent of persistence and path dependence in city structures. The central hypothesis is that city structures change slowly, because of inertia, increasing returns and transactions costs, but there are defining periods that produce major changes. These changes may flow from deliberative institutional interventions (such as infrastructure investment and policy change) or exogenous shocks (such as natural disaster, war, and macro-economic shifts). The research will test the hypothesis by collating and examining long-term primary data on urban evolution in London, Birmingham, Glasgow and Melbourne. This paper presents the conceptual and theoretical framing of this programme of research, along with findings from the second phase of our empirical work conducted in the suburb of Carlton, Melbourne. The empirical data enables comparison of the evolution of two locations within Carlton. The paper provides a detailed long run account of land use and land value based on rate records, census data, and planning schemes; and documents continuity and change in urban characteristics over a 100 year period. The findings and discussion focus on the role of land ownership patterns and built materials in determining rates of urban structural change. The paper argues that understanding long run continuity and change in city structure provides valuable insight into contemporary urban trends and city futures.