Strategic land use capacity in Melbourne

Recent metropolitan planning in Melbourne estimates the demand for housing to 2051 at 1,570,000 new dwellings across three general spatial areas: inner, established and outer growth areas. The inner city will need 310,000, the established suburbs 650,000 and outer growth areas 610,000 new dwellings. However, the new metropolitan plan, Plan Melbourne, does not provide estimates of land supply or housing types in these areas. The Victorian State Government introduced new planning zones in 2014. The metropolitan plan does not consider how these zones potentially increase land supply spatially. This paper presents a comprehensive metropolitan-wide method and model for determining potential land supply in Melbourne. The model matches demand for new housing to land supply and emerging housing needs across the three general spatial areas. The paper proposes alternative models of development to the predominant high rise inner urban and low density outer urban models as a contribution to emerging metropolitan policy in Melbourne. It relates housing types to housing needs in all three general spatial areas by investigating trends in high rise, outer urban housing, and the need for increasing medium density housing in middle ring and other established suburbs. The paper provides detailed land supply estimates and locations for each area, calculating the impacts of the new residential zones and the potential for redevelopment of commercial and mixed use zones to contribute to future housing needs.