The challenges of drought monitoring and early warning

The monitoring and forecasting of drought is a significant challenge for those engaged in water resources management. Though challengeing, these functions are increasingly viewed as being essential, as drought becomes more commonplace and severe due to climate change. Furthermore, drought information is often delivered in a manner that is too technical and difficult to understand by decision makers. This article aims at socializing early drought information using precipitation values, which could be understood better by common users. Drought index, namely Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is first assessed to investigate how well this index is able to reflect drought conditions in Victoria, Australia. The SPI is then computed across 3 and 12 month cumulative rainfall volumes to determine the effects of precipitation deficits in the short and medium terms. Throughout these initial applications, the SPI is shown to be a good indicator worthy of further study. The threshold values are then identified from the translation of the SPI to the precipitation. Based on the simulation of 12-month time scale precipitation, the drought class prediction is also presented.