The intelligence game: Assessing Delphi groups and structured question formats

Wintle, Bonnie; Mascaro, Steven; Fidler, Fiona; McBride, Marissa; Burgman, M; Flander, Louisa; Saw, Geoff; Twardy, Charles; Lyon, Aidan; Manning, Brian

The intelligence game: Assessing Delphi groups and structured question formats

conference contribution

posted on 2024-10-31, 18:58 authored by Bonnie Wintle, Steven Mascaro, Fiona Fidler, Marissa McBride, M Burgman, Louisa Flander, Geoff Saw, Charles Twardy, Aidan Lyon, Brian Manning

In 2010, the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) announced a 4-year forecasting "tournament". Five collaborative research teams are attempting to outperform a baseline opinion pool in predicting hundreds of geopolitical, econo

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URL - Is published in http://ro.ecu.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=asi

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1

End page

26

Total pages

26

Outlet

Refereed Proceedings of the 2012 SECAU Security and Intelligence Congress

Name of conference

2012 SECAU Security and Intelligence Congress

Publisher

SRI Security Research Institute, Edith Cowan University

Place published

Perth, Australia

Start date

2012-12-03

End date

2012-12-05

Language

English

Former Identifier

2006056185

Esploro creation date

2020-06-22

Fedora creation date

2016-03-04

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Keywords

Delphi method forecasting judgement subjective probability uncertainty

The intelligence game: Assessing Delphi groups and structured question formats

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