Understanding the dynamics of land-cover changes occurring in the Puerto Rico karst

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) has been a focus of study on the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico for the last decade. Researchers have grappled with forest regeneration processes and urban growth in an island setting as indirect consequences of major economic drivers shifting from agriculture to manufacture. Existing research indicates that urban growth has tended to concentrate along the coastal plains while forest regeneration predominates in the rugged portions of the island. Here, we consider the region between the coastal plains and rugged highlands - the northern karst region. Multidate 0937 to 1997) database analysis of historical aerial photographs using techniques from air photo interpretation and geographic information systems informs our study. Our results indicate that LUCC in the karst region is characterized by both forest regeneration and urbanization, although the respective processes have been notable at different times. Forest regeneration predominated during the first 40 years of the study period, whereas urban growth marks the last 30 years. Additionally, forests largely regenerated along barren slopes, while urban areas mainly expanded in low-lying pastures formerly used for agriculture. Significantly, forest regeneration looks to have stabilized and will begin to decline as urban areas continue to expand, unless management policies are introduced.