Applying Black Swan theory for achieving sustainability in the built environment

Most of the emerging Green Building Councils in Developing Countries are examining the success stories of Developed Countries in the development of their tools, particularly, tools from the USA, UK and Australia. This paper explores the use of building rating tools for achieving sustainability in the built environment, and identifies their current shortcomings. The paper provides an alternative approach to the foundation used for developing these building rating tools as they do not consider uncertainty and our limitations to knowledge and forecasting for the future. The paper argues that Black Swan theory provides a robust approach and needs to be considered at the forefront of tool development and decision making.