Assessing the availability of global metals and minerals for the sustainable century: From aluminium to zirconium

Mining supplies metals and minerals to meet the material and energy needs of the modern world. Typically, mineral resources are widely considered to be ‘finite’ in nature, yet, paradoxically, global production and reported reserves and resources continue to grow. This paper synthesizes an extensive array of data on the long-term trends in cumulative mine production, reserves and resources at a global level as well detailed case studies of Australia, a global leader in many sectors of mining, and lithium, a new metal with rapidly growing demand. Overall, the paper shows that growing mine production has been clearly matched by growing reserves and resources, although there are numerous complex social, environmental and governance factors which are already affecting mines and are expected to increasingly affect mining into the future. Thus it is not possible at present to determine the ‘ultimately recoverable resource’, especially as this is a dynamic quantity dependent on a variety of inter-related factors (e.g., exploration, social issues, technology, market dynamics, environmental risks, governance aspects, etc.). This finding reinforces the need for continuing detailed studies of all metals and minerals to understand their individual supply and use dynamics to help modern society meet its needs and sustainable development goals.