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Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?

journal contribution
posted on 2024-11-02, 08:46 authored by David Kopanyi, Jean Rabanal, Olga Rud, Jan Tuinstra
We conduct a learning to forecast asset pricing experiment that assumes that financial advisors and professional forecasters attract more investors when their price forecasts are more accurate. The competition between forecasters implies that the impact of their forecasts on realized market prices evolves endogenously. We investigate how these endogenous impacts affect price dispersion and mispricing relative to the fundamental price. Our results show that the effect of endogenous impacts depends on (i) the type of market dynamics (stable/unstable) and (ii) the sensitivity of impacts with respect to forecast ac- curacy (low/high). Compared to the baseline treatment, where impacts are constant and independent of forecast accuracy, price dispersion and mispricing is somewhat lower in stable markets when impacts are moderately sensitive to forecast accuracy. In contrast, impacts that are strongly sensitive to forecast accuracy can further destabilize unstable markets, amplifying price dispersion and mispricing.

History

Related Materials

  1. 1.
    DOI - Is published in 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103770
  2. 2.
    ISSN - Is published in 01651889

Journal

Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control

Volume

109

Start page

1

End page

25

Total pages

25

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Place published

Netherlands

Language

English

Copyright

© 2019 Elsevier B.V.

Former Identifier

2006094964

Esploro creation date

2020-09-08

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