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Emergence, spread, persistence and fade-out of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan

journal contribution
posted on 2024-11-01, 10:06 authored by L Heier, G Storvik, Stephen DavisStephen Davis, H Viljugrein, V Ageyev, Evgeniya Klassovkaya, N Stenseth
Predicting the dynamics of zoonoses in wildlife is important not only for prevention of transmission to humans, but also for improving the general understanding of epidemiological processes. A large dataset on sylvatic plague in the Pre-Balkhash area of Kazakhstan (collected for surveillance purposes) provides a rare opportunity for detailed statistical modelling of an infectious disease. Previous work using these data has revealed a host abundance threshold for epizootics, and climatic influences on plague prevalence. Here, we present a model describing the local space-time dynamics of the disease at a spatial scale of 20 × 20 km2 and a biannual temporal scale, distinguishing between invasion and persistence events. We used a Bayesian imputation method to account for uncertainties resulting from poor data in explanatory variables and response variables. Spatial autocorrelation in the data was accounted for in imputations and analyses through random effects. The results show (i) a clear effect of spatial transmission, (ii) a high probability of persistence compared with invasion, and (iii) a stronger influence of rodent abundance on invasion than on persistence. In particular, there was a substantial probability of persistence also at low host abundance.

History

Journal

Proceedings of the Royal Society B

Volume

278

Issue

1720

Start page

2915

End page

2923

Total pages

9

Publisher

Royal Society

Place published

London

Language

English

Copyright

© 2011 The Royal Society

Former Identifier

2006028535

Esploro creation date

2020-06-22

Fedora creation date

2011-11-14