Evaluation of Australian REIT Performance and the Impact of Interest Rates and Leverage

This study explores the sensitivity of the performance of Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) to changes in short and long term interest rates. Based on the intertemporal capital asset pricing model in Merton (1973), we propose an asset pricing model that consists of market returns, macroeconomic indicators, and short and long term interest rates. The effect of market capitalisation is also explored. High debt funds show greater sensitivity to adverse movements in long term interest rates compared to low debt funds. This suggests that gearing levels play a significant role in the returns generating process. All size based portfolios exhibit strong exposure to market risk with medium size A-REITs displaying greater sensitivity to movements in both short and long term interest rates. Although market risk became a stronger driver of returns during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the impact was less prominent post-GFC possibly due to already low levels of interest which created an environment of cheap credit. The implications for asset allocation strategies are that portfolio managers and other investors can reduce exposure to interest rate risk by selecting funds with less leverage and are large in size. High debt funds benefit more during periods of low interest but this may be offset when there is a corresponding increase in long term interest rates.