From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences

We describe the state-of-the-art in performance modeling and prediction for Information Retrieval (IR), Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Recommender Systems (RecSys) along with its shortcomings and strengths. We present a framework for further research, identifying five major problem areas: understanding measures, performance analysis, making underlying assumptions explicit, identifying application features determining performance, and the development of prediction models describing the relationship between assumptions, features and resulting performance.