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Lower bounds to future sea-level rise

journal contribution
posted on 2024-11-01, 14:41 authored by Albert Parker
Many recent papers claim that the climate model-based projections made until the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) yielding a 21st century rise spanning nearly 20–60 cm are likely to underestimate sealevel change in response to rapid climatic variations. These authors project the sea-level rise of 2100 and beyond with semi-empirical methods coupled to a simple climate model finding that sea level is predicted to rise by at least ~ 80 cm at the end of this century and is expected to continue rising for at least the next two hundred years. It is pointed out in this comment that there has been so far no sign in any measured quantity of the positive acceleration predicted by the climate models since the 1990 and the lower bounds to sea level rises in the next few decades in every worldwide location are therefore simply the continuation of the linear trend locally measured up to present.

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    ISSN - Is published in 17593131
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Journal

International Journal of Ocean and Climate Systems

Volume

4

Issue

3

Start page

197

End page

211

Total pages

15

Publisher

Multi-Science Publishing

Place published

United Kingdom

Language

English

Former Identifier

2006042300

Esploro creation date

2020-06-22

Fedora creation date

2014-06-04

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