Measuring the timing between public transport provision and residential development in greenfield estates

The timing of public transport provision in newly established suburbs on the urban fringe is a major concern for residents. It is argued that if public transport were available when residents start moving to a new suburb, they are more likely to use it. Despite this, the timing of public transport service provision relative to residential development is generally unknown. Using a case study of Melbourne, Australia, this article provides a methodology to measure the timing of bus provision relative to residential development. Information from Precinct Structure Plans, Census data, public transport timetables, and a spatial analysis based on Open Street Map, Metromap and Google Earth, were used. Results show that new communities on Melbourne’s urban fringe had to wait 3–4 years on average for a bus service to be implemented. About one quarter (24%) of the communities were already served by a bus service when residents started to move in, 12% had to wait up to a year, and about two-thirds (64%) had to wait for longer than a year, as much as 14 years. For those waiting more than one year, bus provision comes too late to capitalise on the higher likelihood of public transport use through early delivery. To improve public transport delivery in those areas and understand where issues exist, government agencies should monitor the waiting time of communities and support an earlier delivery of public transport through improved land use and transport integration.