Modelling the Relationships between Train Commuters’ Access Modes and Traffic Safety

Walking, cycling, and feeder bus/tram for first- and last-mile (FLM) train access are often considered to have better health benefits, lower cost, and less environmental impacts than driving. However, little is known about the road safety impacts of these FLM access modes, particularly at a network level. This paper aims to investigate the impacts of train commuters' access modes on road safety in Victoria, Australia. Macroscopic analyses of crash outcomes in each zone (i.e., Statistical Area Level 1) were performed using negative binomial (NB) and spatially lagged X negative binomial (SLXNB), accounting for potential indirect effects of mode shares in adjacent zones. This macroscopic analysis approach enabled the consideration of the safety effects across the network. The results showed that the SLXNB models outperformed the NB models. Commuting by train, either with walking or car as FLM access mode, was negatively associated with both total and severe crashes. In addition, commuting by train with feeder bus/tram access mode was negatively associated with severe crashes. Interestingly, commuting by train with cycling access mode was negatively associated with total crashes, with a larger effect when compared to walking and car access modes. Overall, the results suggested promoting active transport as FLM train access mode would lead to an improvement in road safety.