Perspectives for opening Ukranian airspace in terms of state of war

In the article there is a research of the current problem related to long-term forecasting on air traffic in European countries and, in particular, to the future of opening the airspace in Ukraine after the end of the war. It provides the analysis of the forecast given by the European Organization for Air Navigation Safety, which showed an increase of the total number of flights in the airspace of Eurocontrol member countries since 2024. The study determined that the question of opening the Ukrainian airspace meets financial and military challenges which are closely connected with safety threats. The desire to recover the air traffic requires taking into account both the situation on the battlefront and the capabilities of airspace protection as well as the involvement of significant resources. It is shown that the recovery of international air traffic in Ukraine, which was extremely important for the economics and mobility of citizens before the start of the Russian full-scale military invasion, today appears to be a complex and at the same time strategic task. The main factors impacting the intensity of air traffic for 2024 and 2025 are identified. In addition, the example of the Ukrainian Airline "Nova Poshta" called Supernova Airlines, which received permission for operating regular flights to Prague from Lviv and Kyiv, demonstrates the readiness of Ukraine to recover operations of civil flights. The possibility of a phased and limited opening of airspace for civil aviation has been considered, subject to assessing risks and reducing them to an acceptable level as well as implementing additional safety measures. It has been identified that the first and main challenge for the resumption of flights from Ukrainian airports is ensuring safety in airspace over Ukraine. It is shown that the resumption of civil flights in Ukraine depends on several factors: the first one is the securing airports from enemy missile strikes, the second one is the preparation and certification of airport infrastructure, the third one deals with the mechanism for insuring passengers and aircraft, and the fourth one is related to the defining the airlines that would agree to operate their flights in such harsh conditions. The possibility of a phased and partial opening of airspace for civil aviation has been explored, and Lviv might become the first city with a functioning airport.<p></p>