Possibilistic scheduling routing for short-notice bushfire emergency evacuation under uncertainties: An Australian case study

This paper aims to develop a capacitated vehicle routing solution to evacuate short-notice evacuees with time windows and disruption risks under uncertainties during a bushfire. A heuristic solution technique is applied to solve the triangular possibilistic model to optimise emergency delivery service. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is evaluated by comparing it with a designed genetic algorithm on sets of 20 numerical examples. The model is then applied to the real case study of 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, Australia. The results show that it is possible to transfer the last-minute evacuees during the Black Saturday bushfires under the hard time window constraint. Network disruptions however have impact on resource utilisation. The modelling outputs will be useful in the development of emergency plans and evacuation strategies to enhance rapid response to last-minute evacuation in a bushfire emergency.