Spatio-temporal assessment of social resilience to tropical cyclones in coastal Bangladesh

Tropical cyclones wreak havoc on the lives of coastal populations, especially in marginalised communities in developing countries where cyclone impacts are disproportionately lethal compared to developed countries. These populations must implement measures that enable them to prepare for, respond to, and recover from cyclone impacts. Using empirical evidence, this study presents a spatio-temporally explicit, index-based assessment technique to assess social resilience to tropical cyclones. The key components of social resilience were extracted by Principal Component Analysis; distinct resilience indices were generated and mapped for the three disaster phases. The most influential components were then aggregated into an Effective Social Resilience Index (ESoRI), which was mapped across the study area. The technique was applied in a coastal sub-district of Bangladesh to demonstrate the approach. Basic preparedness training, emergency response, social bonding, and reconstruction and rehabilitation strongly influenced resilience in ways that corresponded closely to the phases of the disaster-management cycle: preparedness, response, and recovery. The spatial pattern of resilience revealed that social resilience varies significantly in time and space within a circumscribed locale. Importantly, areas close to the sea and rivers were found to be more resilient despite their high exposure to cyclones and lack of external support. This study will guide policymakers concerned with resilience building on a priority basis such as those working in resource-scarce conditions of developing countries.