The role of spatial risk assessment in the context of planning for adaptation in UK urban areas

There are many challenges to developing and delivering effective climate change adaptation strategies for urban areas. Some are associated with a lack of available tools to help understand the spatial and temporal dimensions of climate related problems, while others are associated with the limitations of existing structures and frameworks through which adaptation plans can be generated and delivered. The land-use planning system offers a number of options through which climate-related risks may be better managed, especially in urban areas. However, both land-use planning and the related process of urban design can just as easily adversely affect the nature and degree of impacts, effectively enhancing the impacts of climate change. The long-term nature of urbanization processes means that just like the climate system itself, the decisions that are taking place now will determine the response of the urban system in the future, making climate-conscious planning an urgent and important goal. This paper considers how a spatial risk assessment framework can help improve adaptation planning through providing relevant information to underpin the development of adaptation strategies related to land-use and spatial planning. The paper uses an example of adaptation to heat stress in a UK urban context (Greater Manchester) and shows how socio-economic as well as climate scenarios help to shape future patterns of risk. It ends with suggestions for how heat stress risk might be effectively tackled through considering existing policies which operate over conurbation as well as local scales.