Using System Dynamics Approach to Explore the Mode Shift between Automated Vehicles, Conventional Vehicles, and Public Transport in Melbourne, Australia

With the increasing use of automated vehicles (AVs) in the coming decades, government authorities and private companies must leverage their potential disruption to benefit society. Few studies have considered the impact of AVs towards mode shift by considering a range of factors at the city level, especially in Australia. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a system dynamic (SD)-based model to explore the mode shift between conventional vehicles (CVs), AVs, and public transport (PT) by systematically considering a range of factors, such as road network, vehicle cost, public transport supply, and congestion level. By using Melbourne’s Transport Network as a case study, the model simulates the mode shift among AVs, CVs, and PT modes in the transportation system over 50 years, starting from 2018, with the adoption of AVs beginning in 2025. Inputs such as current traffic, road capacity, public perception, and technological advancement of AVs are used to assess the effects of different policy options on the transport systems. The data source used is from the Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM), provided by the Department of Transport and Planning, Melbourne, Australia, data from the existing literature, and authors’ assumptions. To our best knowledge, this is the first time using an SD model to investigate the impacts of AVs on mode shift in the Australian context. The findings suggest that AVs will gradually replace CVs as another primary mode of transportation. However, PT will still play a significant role in the transportation system, accounting for 50% of total trips by person after 2058. Cost is the most critical factor affecting AV adoption rates, followed by road network capacity and awareness programs. This study also identifies the need for future research to investigate the induced demand for travel due to the adoption of AVs and the application of equilibrium constraints to the traffic assignment model to increase model accuracy. These findings can be helpful for policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding AV adoption policies and strategies.