Accessible transport system for the elderly

<p>The number of the older population is increasing in the world. The elderly may feel independent if the transportation system is not easily accessible. Many studies have been undertaken to measure public transport accessibility worldwide. However, there are limited studies in the literature regarding the elderly transport accessibility index using total travel time. This research aims to develop an Elderly Public Transport Accessibility Index (EPTAI) that considers elderly travel time and population within the second smallest statistical area (smallest statistical area according to census data availability). The index identifies six different levels of public transport (Train, tram and bus) access for the elderly within the urban area for various travel destinations. The four most popular destinations (shopping, health care, education and recreation centres) are considered for this index calculation. Household travel survey data, crosstab analysis and existing popular public transport accessibility measures (PTAL) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed EPTAI. The results indicate that elderly public transport (PT) access varies depending on travel time, population density and travel destinations. The EPTAI evaluates the very poor to excellent PT access levels for the elderly within urban and regional areas.</p> <p>The mobility pattern changes with the increase of age. Easy walking trips and accessibility encourage sustainable mobility. Many researchers have worked on walking accessibility. However, in general, walking accessibility models, considering the walk time for the elderly, is very limited. This study proposes an Elderly Walking Accessibility Index (EWAI) to measure walking access levels around the neighbourhoods. This index considers elderly walk time to reach different destinations (including shopping, health care, education, recreation centres), land-use mix, pedestrian accident datasets, street connectivity, and the elderly population. The Geographical Information System is used to measures the distance and time from the origin to destinations. Two different EWAIs are developed and compared. These two indices are examined using several verification methods (Pearson Chi-Square, Likelihood Ratio, Phi, Cramer's V, Contingency Coefficient) and compared to an existing popular walking accessibility index (WI) to identify the accuracy of the proposed EWAIs. The proposed EWAIs identify that the elderly walking access level is very low for most areas in metropolitan Melbourne.</p> <p>Travel behaviour models are necessary to identify travel demand and planning transport systems. Many studies identify various approaches to measure public transport accessibility and travel behaviour modelling. However, limited models are developed to analyse the elderly's transport mode choice preference based on travel time and spatial area. This thesis presents a binary logistic regression model using the proposed elderly time-based public transport access index. The model is applied to observe the elderly public transport mode preference. The model is evaluated by comparing the results with other developed binary models using EPTAI, socioeconomic and built environmental variables. Moreover, the probabilities of selecting a transport mode by the elderly are analysed by statistical tests (IBM SPSS Statistic 26) and compared with the observed transport mode choice (existing elderly travel data). A sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the travel time significantly impacts the probabilities of selecting an elderly's transport mode.</p> <p>Furthermore, similar to elderly PT mode choice modelling, another model is proposed using newly developed EWAI, elderly socioeconomic characteristics and built environmental variables. The results show the elderly easy walking access towards a destination is a significant factor in the elderly's walking preferences.</p> <p>Finally, this research identifies the dependency of trip duration, time of the day, geographical areas and PT access over the elderly transport mode preference. The spatial and temporal analysis shows the relation between trip duration, neighbourhood area/location, and elderly transport mode choice. The spatial analysis study shows that elderly public transport preference is sometimes related to neighbourhood location and travel destinations. The temporal analysis result shows that transport mode preference can vary depending on trip purposes. However, the elderly sometimes choose PT as a mobility mode for specific trip durations and times of the day. For instance, on shopping trips between 10:00 and 11:00 AM, the elderly have a larger likelihood of choosing public transport over private vehicles. The results show the public transport mode preference based on different times of the day and trip purposes.</p> <p>Moreover, this thesis measures the PT and walking accessibility levels for the elderly. The proposed indices (EPTAI and EWAI) can be used for future planning, expansion and modification of the public transport network in urban and regional areas considering elderly travel demand. EPTAI and EWAI are also applicable for measuring the disabled/other adult commuters' access levels. The thesis also evaluates various travel preferences and decisions made by older people. The results confirm that the proposed time-based model (using EPTAI and EWAI) can describe the elderly's travel decision to choose the appropriate travel mode. The accessibility index results maybe plan future facilities locations. The proposed models can be helpful to design a more accessible public transport system and essential destinations coverage. Urban and transport planners may use these results/measures to plan and modify public transport schedules which can be easily accessible by the elderly.</p>