Managing transition to autonomous vehicles

The development of smart cities is seen as a solution to problems associated with anticipated large urbanization. Expected benefits include pollution reduction, that will be achieved using renewable energy, and safer and more efficient transport using electrical and autonomous vehicles equipped with state-of-the-art information and communication technology (ICT). Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are subsystems of the smart cities, that also involve modern technology, such as computer vision, internet of things (IoT), ICT and artificial intelligence (AI), to achieve better traffic efficiency, travellers’ safety, and reduce pollution. Autonomous vehicles (AV)s are integral part of ITS, focusing on more efficient and safer transport / mobility experience. The main objectives of this research were to identify the current status of technology development, public awareness, and readiness for the transition, and provide suggestions for effectively managing transition to that new AV technology. Keeping this in mind, the first study was carried out to investigate the technology developments related to AVs and ITS. These include Hard Systems Approach (HSA) as used in management practices. Essentially, a comprehensive literature review was conducted on trends and development in automotive industry. That industry, as all other industries nowadays, is multidisciplinary including mechanical, electrical, electronics, computer systems IoT, and ICT. The modern car is the best example of comprehensive engineering, i.e., mechatronics. On the top of that we now have introduction of AI algorithms and motion control in autonomous vehicles [1]. Automation is introduced gradually, and The Society of Automotive Engineer (SAE) international has defined sixth levels [2]. Further to that, AV initial research, the latest developments in ITS and smart cities were also considered using HSA management approach. The first contribution of the research comes as result of those AV and ITS technologies investigation, and following that, longitudinal surveys conducted in Saudi Arabia and Australia. Conclusion is that we need to introduce more automation, and that is already going on at certain levels. After initial excitement of two simultaneous transitions in automotive industry, to electrical vehicles and to autonomous vehicles, key stake holders have realised that the transition to EV has higher priority. Priorities are seen through the level of contribution, of those two transitions, to the environmental sustainability. While EV transition will exclude internal combustion engines (ICE) and so bring green transportation, AV transition will offer more efficient and safe transport. Better traffic efficiency with AVs will reduce pollution, but not as much as the use of electrical motors. Of course, the electricity used in the car, has to be green as well, but that is subject of another intensive research. Talking about AV transition, the same as EV transition, technology is very much ready, but there are other issues that have to be considered in relation to autonomous vehicles. From the engineering point of view, we are ready, but to handle non-engineering issues Soft Systems Approach (SSA) has to be applied. Introduction of any new technology goes through acceptance phase and the process which are product specific. Original Autonomous Vehicles Technology Acceptance Model (AV TAM) is created and successfully applied in further research. That is second contribution of this project in global management. EV and AV transitions are global management processes, handled differentlyaround the world, especially AV transition, but the AVTAM is the same. With SSA approach we need all stakeholders’ opinions, in particular the community / customers and that was the reason for longitudinal surveys. In addition to engineering factor, there are also ethical, moral and legal issues that have to be resolved. Solutions to those will be different in each country and therefore no single global approach is expected. From conducted and analysed surveys come few more contributions and insights. One of the main ones is the answer to the research question, when could we expect the transition to be effective. According to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) surveys the full automation, which means no human driver involvement will not happen till 2030. This public opinion is in line with KSA government planning known as Vision 2030. For Australia it is expected sometime later. Additional surveys are needed, in the longitudinal cycles during following years, with much larger number of participants. We have found that, for the general public, more information and education in new technologies is needed. The mobility of the future is multimodal, including electrical, hybrid vehicles, autonomous vehicles, public transport, ride sharing, rails and waterways, bicycles, e-bikes, other e vehicles and of course pedestrians. Transition to autonomous vehicles will bring more efficient transport with less pollution. It will be safer and hopefully we will have less on-road traffic incidents. At the same time AVs, as any other ICT technology, have to deal with cyber attacks, and ensure cyber security. Finally, at this stage, the cost of technology is an important negative factor, but the automation will go forward gradually. As seen from the surveys, potential customers will pay for the level of automation that suits them the best, in terms of driving pleasure and the cost. Each higher level of automation introduces more active safety features, which means preventing accidents so that they do not happen. According to ethics and moral norms in each community AI algorithms have to be tailored to suit the public. Only then, with the support of regulatory framework developed for full AV automation, technology will be fully deployed. According to investigations conducted, that will after the year 2030 and it depends on the countries and regions. It is a global transition, but the timelines are different. This transition is accompanied with the transition to electrical vehicles, so that the car of the future will be electrical, automounts vehicle.