Modelling the factors affecting port lapse time

Global trade is intricately interconnected and relies heavily on efficient and reliable ports. However, an ongoing issue of port delays and congestion in the liner shipping industry creates continuous challenges for the smooth operation of the maritime supply chain. The extended waiting times caused by port congestion can have a domino effect on vessel schedules, leading to delays in subsequent voyages and causing widespread disruption across the industry. Additionally, port congestion leads to supply chain disruptions, reduced competitiveness, diminished service quality, and increased costs throughout the supply chain. Therefore, understanding and examining the specific factors that cause port delays is crucial for effectively managing supply chain disruptions, optimising port performance, and mitigating trade losses. To date, port turnaround time and port dwell time are widely used to measure delays. Port turnaround time measures a port's efficiency and includes factors like cargo loading/unloading time and waiting for berthing. However, inconsistent measuring practices make it difficult to compare port delays. On the other hand, port dwell time accounts for vessel activities like loading/unloading and ship maintenance. Relying solely on port dwell time may not give a complete picture of delays. To address these issues, this study introduces the concept of "port lapse time" as a novel measure of port delays derived from near-real-time Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Port lapse time provides a standardised measurement that indicates the deviation from the average time vessels spend in ports, reflecting whether stays are longer or shorter than the norm. The assumption is that the greater the port lapse time, the greater the port delay of time-based measures. Using secondary data from three datasets: the Automatic Identification System (AIS), the World Port Index, and the World Bank, this study identified, modelled, and analysed the effects of port-specific factors on port lapse time. The study employed a quantitative approach using 401 cases, to investigate and test the hypothesised relationships of these port-specific factors.  Relationships between these port specific factors and port lapse time were tested using structural equation modelling (SEM) and analysis of moment structures (AMOS). The results indicate that better quality port infrastructure and geographically suitable location conditions are more conducive to improving port logistics services, which in turn contribute to a reduction in port lapse time. Quality of port infrastructure, location conditions, and port network connectivity were also found to have a positive impact on port dynamic flow. Port network connectivity and port dynamic flow partially mediate the relationship between location conditions and port lapse time. Moderation analysis shows that port-specific factors and port lapse time differ based on a country's income level. High-income countries have advantages in port infrastructure, service responsiveness, and location conditions, resulting in better performance, shorter lapse times, and improved efficiency. These countries are able to invest more in modernising and maintaining port infrastructure, resulting in well-equipped ports with advanced technology and efficient cargo-handling facilities. The mediation analysis shows that port network connectivity and port dynamic flow partially explain the connection between location conditions and port lapse time. When a port is well-connected and efficient, it reduces the time vessels spend in transit, resulting in shorter port lapse times. The findings from this study will assist port authorities and policymakers in several ways. By adopting the theoretical framework developed in this study, this will facilitate a holistic examination of port lapse time across diverse contexts, enabling the identification of patterns and trends in port lapse time. From a managerial perspective, this study offers an opportunity for port authorities to manage port operations and plan for future investment in port infrastructure. Well-managed ports attract ship owners, who decide their future routes based on port efficiency. Regulators can use this information to develop long-term strategies and policies to encourage containerised trade.