The impacts of climate change and climatic shocks on household wellbeing: empirical evidence from Vietnam

Climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing humankind in the twenty-first century. People in the developing world are widely believed to be more vulnerable to climate change because of their reliance on agriculture, resource scarcity, poor infrastructure and unstable institutions. The 2009 World Development Report found that by the end of this century, Vietnam will be one of five countries most affected by climate change due to its long coastlines, a high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas and a heavy reliance on agriculture, natural resources and forestry. This thesis undertakes the econometric analysis of secondary data to determine the impacts of climate change and climatic shocks on household wellbeing in Vietnam. The first research area is concerned with the relationship between climatic variables and agricultural output. It does so using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey as well as monthly temperature and precipitation data for the period 1950-2014. The estimated results are combined with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in temperature and rainfall will affect agricultural output. The second research area investigates the impacts of climatic shocks on migration using household level data. This econometric approach examines the direct impact of a shock on migration as well as the indirect impact through its reduction of agricultural output. Findings indicate that the damage from climatic shocks increases the probability of migration. The third research area is concerned with the impacts of climatic shocks on child health, using panel data for child health from the Young Lives Project and rainfall data. Findings indicate that climatic shocks impact on child health directly but also indirectly, through their impacts on the psychological well-being of mothers. The final research area examines the determinants of the Vietnamese government's support programs to areas impacted by climatic shocks. It uses commune level data from the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. Empirical findings from this chapter suggest that communes with higher levels of political connections have a higher probability of receiving support in a post-shock period.